The GOAT. A daunting question that baseball fans will debate forever. It’s a question of peak performance, statistical accumulation, and contextual significance. In this debate, old players like Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, and Tris Speaker are essentially shut out because of the era they played in. None of them played past after 1928, hit more than 117 home runs, or faced a fastball above 90 mph. With all this being said, there is one old player with a real argument for the GOAT.
Josh Gibson was the premier slugger and catcher of his day. He played from 1930-1946, and was the best Black player in a segregated game (Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947). Gibson racked up inconceivable statistical achievements, marvelous single-season performances, and did it all while facing horrid conditions and racism.
As I said before, there are three main components to what makes someone the GOAT: peak performance, statistical accumulation, and contextual significance. The first difficulty in assessing any statistical element of Gibson’s career comes from the lack of verifiable statistics. Because so much of black pre-integration baseball relied on barnstorming, the practice of traveling without a strict schedule to challenge other ball clubs to games, and had more fluctuation in terms of the teams in the leagues, statistics weren’t as standardized as white baseball. With that being said, Stathead’s page on Josh Gibson, has official stats on 602 games, just enough to make statistical arguments with. On top of this, historians have estimates on other totals for career statistics.
In 1933, Gibson’s first full season on record, he put up 4.8 wins above replacement (WAR), a .395 batting average (BA), 18 home runs (HR), and a 217 OPS+. He led his league in WAR and HRs every year from 1933 to 1939. In 1937, he had his best season by power standards, hitting 20 HR in 39 games. If he were to do that over a full season, he’d hit 80 homers. As ridiculous as that pace may sound, it’s in line with the myths surrounding Gibson. It’s been reported and rumored that Gibson had 70, and even, 80 homer seasons throughout the 1930s. Gibson’s best season was probably 1943, when he racked up 6.3 WAR, 20 HR, a staggering .466 BA, and a 281 OPS+ in 69 games. If he had continued that pace over a full season, his WAR total would’ve been 14.8, and he would’ve had 45 homers. Gibson’s team, the Homestead Greys, also won the championship that year and repeated as champions in 1944. Perhaps this says it best: Gibson’s 162 game average is 10.3 WAR, 45 HR, 197 RBIs, a .373 BA, 1.174 OPS, and 214 OPS+. No one has ever done anything like that.
If you look at Gibson’s full career, the numbers are equally impressive. He is the all-time leader in most rate-based statistics. His .373 BA, 1.176 OPS, and .719 slugging (SLG) are all first all time. He sits at third all-time for on base percentage (OBP) at .457. In terms of counting stats, he paces for 823 HR and 4,007 hits over his career. The home run pacing is certainly believable, the most historical conservative estimate is 800 total HR. This number would be the highest all time, beating Barry Bonds’s 762, and Hank Aaron’s 755.
With all that information, you might ask yourself, why isn’t Josh Gibson the widely-accepted GOAT? He sits atop the leaderboard for most, if not every major statistical category, how could he not be the GOAT? Well, for one thing, pacing isn’t the same as doing. It’s entirely possible Gibson hit 823 HR throughout his career, but because statistics weren’t kept well enough to know for sure, we can only rely on pacing and historical estimations. On top of this, people will point out that he simply played a long time ago, when the level of play was lower than today.
Here’s why none of that matters for Josh Gibson. From a statistical standpoint he maintained excellent numbers throughout his entire career, including when he would’ve undergone physical decline, so even if his pace slowed down slightly, his stats would be insane. Although Gibson did play a long time ago, he faced real velocity. Pitchers in the 1930s and ‘40s threw between 80-90 mph, which means some pitchers inevitably threw harder. At the very least, Gibson saw very few soft tossers throwing 70, unlike Ty Cobb.
Something that often goes overlooked is the disadvantages that players from older eras had. For example, medicine, travel, and living conditions were all much worse. It was worse in black baseball pre-segregation, who dealt with longer schedules, more double headers, being sold off to other teams, financial instability, terrible busses, shady hotels, and, of course, appalling racism. These are issues that are lessened greatly in today’s game, but Josh Gibson had no such luck.
If you’re still not convinced that Josh Gibson faced respectable competition, these are quotes from players who played with or against Josh Gibson, who later made it to the MLB:
“I played with Willie Mays and against Hank Aaron. They were tremendous players, but they were no Josh Gibson” said Monte Irvin, Giants Hall of Famer.
“One of the things that was disappointing and disheartening to a lot of the black players at the time was that Jackie – although a great player – was not the best player. The best was Josh Gibson” said Larry Doby, Cleveland Hall of Famer.
“You look for his weakness and while you’re looking for it, he’s liable to hit 45 home runs” said Satchel Paige, Monarchs Hall of Famer.
The thing you’ve probably been thinking about this whole time, what about Babe Ruth? I’ve mentioned Mays, Aaron, and Bonds (the other people who are usually mentioned in the GOAT conversation), but what about the Bambino? Fastball velocity in the 20s and 30s was mostly in the 80-85 mph range, lower than what Gibson faced. He undoubtedly played in better conditions too, given the racism of the time, and he, like Gibson, never played in integrated baseball. The only difference is we know Ruth’s statistics, and we can only guess at Gibson’s, but we can guess well. Josh Gibson was simply better, whether it be by the small sample sizes we have, the pacing math I’ve done, or the folklore told through generations.
Image credited to Picryl.com
