The world as it appears is emerging on a multitude of crises. Diseases are rapidly spreading, the ice in the Arctic is melting, and to top it all off, we may be experiencing a worldwide food shortage in the next few years due to the impacts of climate change. If things don’t change for the better soon, it could be detrimental.
Previous Research Studies: What Are We Facing Now?
2007 research from Environmental Research Letters found that only about 30% of year-to-year fluctuations in crops were due to the constant changes in the global climate. The research emphasizes that in these conditions, we as a human community are incredibly lucky that the global agricultural system has managed to remain fairly intact, and that major food shortages so far have been rare.
That research was from sixteen years ago. So, what changes are arising in 2023 regarding global warming’s dreadful impact on our food industry? According to World Economic Forum, food prices have become increasingly volatile, and are rapidly becoming more and more expensive as a result of trying to sustain agriculture in a declining environment. This will eventually cause pressure on underdeveloped countries and the impoverished. Taxes will fall higher on food items, food shortages will arise quickly, and trade systems may be paused due to the lack of crops we are able to sustain and sell. World Economic Forum explains that while crop growth per hectare has grown considerably over the last 50 years, the rate of this growth has significantly declined over the last decade. Up to 30% of European agriculture’s expected increase in growth has already been canceled out due to the adverse changes in climate.
Destruction of Soil and Land
The most pronounced changes in the food industry seem to be happening in sub-Saharan Africa which is at very high risk for climate change impacts on food safety, availability, and affordability. Studies show these changes are prominent in the growing of rice crops, barley, maize, millet, pulses, and wheat. The countries most at risk for food shortages, like sub-Saharan Africa, are also those that are most negatively impacted by the rising climates and weather changes. According to the latest of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the higher the average global temperatures and more extreme weather conditions associated with climate change will undoubtedly reduce the reliability of food. The IPCC also regards the damaging of soil and degradation of land – the rising heat and rainfall that come with climate change are devastating crop lands, thus making the soil less productive. This makes it near impossible to grow any crops; the soil lacks severely in nutrients and organic matter, negatively affecting crop yields. In addition to this, climate change has pushed forward rising levels in seawater as the ice melts away, which will invite saltwater intrusions and permanently damage crops and flood the lands.
Skyrocketing Crop Expenses Increases Poverty
A TIME Magazine article from 2022 cites that the inflation on food prices is causing low-income areas to force their families into poverty without food. According to the article, as of July 12, 2022, 19 countries around the world have implemented exported trade restrictions on their agricultural goods in an effort to keep their people from going hungry. Because of the shortage of food, wheat prices went up 42%; Maize prices went up 47%, and most countries are experiencing inflation rates of about 5%. According to the World Bank, “about 80% of the global population are most at risk from crop failures and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Southeast Asia, where farming families are disproportionately poor and vulnerable.”
71.5 million people have been pushed into poverty in sub-Sarah Africa, Balkans, and the Caspian Basin. These are places that, again, have become unable (or were previously unable) to grow their own agriculture, and relied heavily on human rations and trade exports. Now that their access to these resources is limited, more and more people are being forced out of their homes and onto the streets. David Laborde, senior research fellow at Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) says, “We have strong evidence that it’s linked to climate change and global warming.”
Restricted Use of Water and The Impact on Agriculture
For regions around the world that are already restricted on water, climate change is going to cause an increase in inauspicious impacts on the production of agriculture. Global climate change is causing a halt in agricultural growth through things like diminishing water supply, increases in heat stress, pests and diseases, and dangerous weather events like floods and severe storms.
The World Bank stresses that at a certain point of warming – in particular, above a raise of 2 degrees Celsius, the land becomes severely more disagreeable to adapt to, thus creating a lack of crops, making each crop grown more expensive. Countries around the world that already house extremely high temperatures, for example, the Sahel Belt of Africa or South Asia, are going to take on more instantaneous, negative effects on their crops that are less tolerant to the rising heat.
Key Strategies and Solutions
Despite all this, there is a way for agriculture to become adaptable to climate change. The World Bank says that it is possible to reduce emissions and become more resilient, but to do this, we need to harbor a major social, technological, and economic change. The World Bank gives us a few key strategies to do so:
The first key step is to switch agriculture to less thirsty crops. Rice requires a lot of water to grow and therefore makes its sustainability in such conditions we are facing scarce; instead of rice, farmers can grow maize, or legumes. Less thirsty growth helps to reduce methane emissions; however, cultures that have been growing rice for years may be less likely to switch their crops. So, The World Bank offers another idea.
Using water more efficiently combined with policies placed to manage demand. The World Bank’s research shows that building more irrigation infrastructure is not a solid solution, as future water supply may become inadequate to supply the systems. So, instead, they offer that we better manage our water demand and use advanced systems and technology to determine the amount of available water. These systems would include soil moisture detectors and satellite evapotranspiration measurements; these can implement strategies, like alternate moisture instead of wasting water, and drying off rice paddies, which will save access water and reduce methane emissions simultaneously.
The last key step is to improve soil health. This is the most important step; in order to keep the soil healthy and less likely to become damaged, we need to increase its organic carbon. This allows the soil to better retain water, decreasing likelihood to endure drought, and it will also make access to water more readily available for growing plants. Increasing organic carbon in soil will also provide extra nutrients without the use of unneeded chemical fertilizer, which results in a huge amount of emissions being released. To restore lost carbon, farmers can avoid tilling the soil and by instead using cover crops with large roots in their crop rotation cycle rather than leaving the crop fields empty and at risk. Nature-based solutions like these are able to deliver 37% of climate change mitigation necessary to fix some things up in the food industry. However, it won’t be easy. Farmers are unfortunately not going to change their routine so easily, and it will take plenty of time, training, and awareness.
The Next Steps
In response to the rapidly increasing crises in the food industry due to climate change, the World Bank has proposed a 5 year plan, starting in 2021 and marking its end for 2025, to step up support for “Climate-Smart Agriculture” across the food value chains through policy and technological interventions. The point of these is to enhance productivity, improve resilience, and reduce GHG emissions from releasing. The World Bank’s ultimate goal is to help countries around the world tackle food loss and shortages as well as poverty, waste, and managing their flood and drought risks. The bank supports a project in Niger, which aims to benefit 500,000 farmers in 44 communes through the Bank’s distribution of improved, drought-tolerant seeds, expanded use of woodland for conserving agricultural techniques, and more efficient irrigation. The Bank’s project has helped as of October 17, 2022, 336,518 farmers sustain their land and has brought up 79,938 hectares of more sustainable farming practices
If enough farmers adapt to these solutions, we may be able to prevent a far worse food crisis from occurring. These tactics may also be key steps in reducing the impacts of climate change. There is hope for our world to return to its original state, but we need to start here, and we need to start fast.
Feature Photo by Li-An Lim
